Uzbekistan was an important recipient of new US aid, but has pulled towards Russia and China in the midst of Western criticism for its human rights violations. Since this shift, Russia and China have taken advantage the opportunity to fortify their position with Caspian states.
By Ayesha Villalobos,
Times
gone by and the history of the Caspian region is subjected by a
cyclical pattern of conflict between global powers. The era of The Great
Game is a historical period extraordinarily identified for the clashing
of empires, the 19th Century, the Ottoman, British, and Czarist Russian Empires squabbled for power in and around the Caspian region.
An established fact, the Caspian Sea is the largest inland body of
water in the world and borders Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan,
Azerbaijan, and Iran. Oil and gas are the sea’s most precious natural
resources. Caspian oil production currently accounts for 2.8 percent of
the world’s oil supply, whereas, gas production accounts for about 5
percent. Estimates of the Caspian Sea region’s proven oil reserves vary
widely by source.
The United States Department of Energy estimates that the region
holds between 17 to billion barrels. The British Petroleum’s estimates
are 47.1 billion barrels. These figures
indicate that the Caspian’s oil resources are much less than those of the Middle East.
Stated differently, the Caspian Sea will not replace the Middle East
as the main reservoir of world oil. Still, production from the Caspian
will add more oil to international markets and contribute to global
energy security. The sea has yet to be divided among the littoral
states, and each is in quest to gain the biggest share possible.
The Caspian region does not only consist of the littoral states but
also Armenia, Georgia, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. Russia is treated
uniquely as a global power. Due to the Caspian Sea location within the
geographical area. Its oil rich resources, strategic location, and
history of global conflict combine to make this region vital to its
neighbours.
A global level competition within the Caspian region. During the early 19th Century, Britain
and Tsarist Russia were both expanding their empires into Central Asia.
Both of these powers soon congregated on the borders of the Ottoman
Empire. As these empires are closer with each other, a period of
competition known as The Great Game was created.
Apprehension that the Russians would use Afghanistan to stage an invasion of India, the British initiated the First Afghan War
in 1838. The objective was to set up a puppet government in Afghanistan
which would provide a buffer against advanced Russian intrusion. The
First Afghan War ended with the retreat of British troops
from an Afghanistan that rejected to be submissive. For a while Russia
and Britain shifted to coercion and proxies but rapidly a Second Afghan
War was fought, only to suffer the same fate. A momentary peace
followed. When that agreement was upset by the Bolshevik Revolution, a
Third Afghan War erupted. Similarly, this rivalry ended in stalemate,
and The Great Game was briefly abandoned and the world became entangled
in World War II.
Subsequently, World War II, a destabilized Britain was replaced by
the United States as a global power. The Cold War period saw the
development of a global balance between Soviet Russia and the United
States. In the Caspian region this balance of powers resembled like
another Great Game, and Afghanistan found itself entangled once again.
This time around it was the USSR that attempted to suppress this defiant
country. The Afghanis resisted fiercely and bloodily repulsed the
invading Soviets. Soviet expansion ground to a halt, and the Soviet
Union disintegrated thereafter.
Presently, the Caspian region remains a crucial point in international affairs,
motivated by the value of oil and a reinvigorated US presence. Russia,
China, and the US now find themselves engaged in this blueprint of
global rivalry. Beyond doubt, this has the unfolding of a dramatic
sequel of The Great Game, and all three powers juxtaposed. These three
states will be referred to as the global powers.
Russia
Russia has had the longest history of participation in the power
struggles within the Caspian region. Even throughout the era when its
power has declined, Russia has never completely abandoned its stake in
the regional game. It has had vested interests in this region since it
affirmed its power in the commencement of The Great Game. Today, control
in this sphere is not just an issue of regional security, or energy
requirements, but one of supremacy. This region is Russia’s backyard.
The collapse of the Berlin wall, in 1989, signifies the end of the Cold
War, and it marked the beginning, of re-examination and identification
of international relations, filling the void left by the collapse of
Cold War alliances. As the Cold War ended and the USSR started to
disintegrate, Soviet treaties with Iran came into question. To guarantee
the stability of the Caspian region, the Minsk Agreement was ratified
on December 21, 1991. The Russian Federation, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, and other former soviet republics signed this accord to
affirm compliance with all treaties signed with the former Soviet Union.
Four days later, the Soviet Union ceased to exist as a state. The
agreements between Iran and the USSR concerning control of the Caspian
Sea, on the other hand, were annulled in the wake of this
disintegration. Now Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan would want a
fraction of this sea’s wealth. This issue swiftly drew controversy. In
1994, Kazakhstan proposed the first draft convention on the legal status
of the Caspian Sea. This prompted other states to each one to propose
and construe their own convenient interpretation with regard to the
procedural division of the sea.
In 1996, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan signed the
Ashgabat Declaration. In this declaration, all approved on a single plan
for the division of the Caspian. In the wake of this agreement,
Azerbaijan was in peril of being locked out of Caspian negotiations. In
1997, oil disputes broke out between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, as
well as with Iran. Russia stepped promptly into both of these conflicts,
and demonstrating Russia’s continuing influence among the Caspian
states. Once these disagreements settled, Azerbaijan began to work more
closely with Russia. In April 1998, both states stunned the world by
establishing a formal agreement to divide the seabed on their coasts.
Still, a unanimous agreement on the division of the Caspian has yet to
be realized.
In the wake of September 11th, Russia cooperated with the increased US military
presence in the region. Both states share a common interest in fighting
terrorism. Collaboration in counterterrorism, nonetheless, does not
mean that Russia is indifferent with the US presence. The United States’
amplified involvement has changed the military
power balance in the region. Prior to US intervention in the region,
Russia and China were providing security through the entities like the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In light of new US military
participation, Russia is working to strengthen its security structures
in the region. Russia has consistently pursued policies that would make
the Caspian states dependent upon it for security. In 2002, Russia
formed the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSO) with
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Armenia. Russia is
clearly the dominant state and acts as a “security manager.”
In addition to its security concerns, Russia has economic priorities
in Central Asia. Among the greatest economic issues for Russia has been
the division of the Caspian Sea. Russia has worked to create an
agreement that would be mutually beneficial for all the littoral states
while preserving Russian hegemony. Russia does not appear interested in
seeing the development of regional cooperation that would undermine its
role as a regional hegemony. For Russia and China, economic advantages
appear to be practically as valuable as military or security advantages.
China
Chinese entry into The Great Game is a new development, but should
not be surprising. China can no longer be considered just an East-Asian
power. It has established trade missions in every Central Asian state
and “offered to help Uzbekistan develop several small oil fields.” China
has also turned its north-western region (Xinjiang) into a hub that
will facilitate economic growth. This region shares its border with
Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan,
Pakistan and India. Pakistan can only benefit if it should act
quickly to draw pipelines for India and Gawadar for onward despatch to
outside world. To date, China possesses trade ties with more than 100
countries and regions.
Demographically, China’s presence is being felt as well. Kazakhstan
now has 100,000 Chinese living within its borders. The geographical
proximity of the Caspian region makes it a Chinese priority for both
economic and security reasons. As China engages this region, it has an
interest in balancing the influence of the US and Russia. US bases in
Central Asia place US military forces closer to China’s western border
than ever before. China, Russia, and the other members of the SCO, have
called for the United States to set a deadline to withdraw from military
bases in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
Russian and Chinese relations have been relatively cooperative to date. It would be noteworthy to mention, though, that these two are competing for oil. Cooperation agreements on security issues may find themselves secondary to China’s demand for oil.
The economic growth in China has produced an insatiable need for
energy resources. While China wants to import Caspian oil, Russia wants
to direct it to the West. The rising demand for oil is doubtless one of
the most vital factors motivating Chinese foreign policy in the region.
It also has the potential to be one of the most unstable issues in the
new stage of this global game.
United States
The United States has a distinctive position in the game, as a power
from half-way around the globe. After the downfall of the USSR, the US
was slow to engage itself in the Caspian region. US interests for this
region, on the other hand, was designed to develop notably in the
post-Cold War period. Between 1992 and 1999, the US would afford
approximately $1.9 billion to the Caspian states under the Freedom
Support Act. In 1994, the Clinton administration established an agency
committed exclusively to designing the Caspian policy. By 1998,
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright travelled to this region and met
with various leaders. Also in 1998, President Clinton appointed a
special advisor for the Caspian region.
Oil has always been one of the United States’ leading interests in
the Caspian but should not be regarded as a lone motivation of US
policy. As a global hegemony (though presently, seen in a crepuscular
stage), the US also has a concentration in scrutinising the
intensification of Russian and Chinese power. After September 11th, the
global War on Terror also became a key factor in determining US foreign
policy. At present, the administration of Barack Obama appears to place
anti-terrorism beyond economic considerations, and US interests in the
region have never been as vigorously exerted as they are at the present.
Strong US financial and military concern quickly followed the
devastation of the twin towers. This integrated the establishment of the
military bases within and outside the Caspian region that alarmed
China. Massive financial aid was granted in exchange for state
cooperation. Such commitment of troops and finances has made the US a
major player in the Caspian region but the rules of the game are
presently determined by Russia and China.” The US is left with modest
choice but to employ these powers, due to its commitment to Afghanistan
and enormous financial and manpower outlay.
United States aid was a smart enticement for Caspian states, but the
US presence weighs greatly in the region. As its propensity to use
bi-lateral agreements signify, the US has revealed an inclination to act
autonomously. This commitment to unilateralism causes some tensions
among regional states. US normative aspirations could also amplify this
feeling of isolation, as authoritarian states feels imperilled by US
endorsement of democracy. This is evident in the case of Uzbekistan.
Uzbekistan was an important recipient of new US aid, but has pulled
towards Russia and China in the midst of Western criticism for its human
rights violations. Since this shift, Russia and China have taken
advantage the opportunity to fortify their position with Caspian states.
Despite all these, nonetheless, the US has acquired some success in its
oil priorities. In December of 2006, the Shah Denis field began
supplying the new South Caucasus pipeline, carrying natural gas to
Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. This pipeline is intended to expand to
Europe and reveal a US desire to bypass Russia and Iran. These current
power struggles between the three global powers pursue a pattern similar
to The Great Game. The greatest security threat to the Caspian region
may not come from external forces but from interstate conflict.
Evaluation of that threat will speak to the cohesiveness of the Islamic
civilization.
http://www.opinion-maker.org/2011/11/caspian-region-the-great-game-remake/#
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